Liverpool U21 3-1 Derby County U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — INGPL2, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
29%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
30%
2.98
Over 2.5
70%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
68%
1.43
No
32%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
11%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
35%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
3%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
63%
-15.5pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.0pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+10.5pp
30%
Under 2.5
30%
-0.2pp
70%
Over 2.5
70%
+0.2pp
68%
BTTS Yes
66%
+2.2pp
32%
BTTS No
34%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool U21 EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
406 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 12.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool U21
3-1
AWAY Derby County U21
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
524 Passes 295
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Liverpool U21 vs Derby County U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool U21 got the better of Derby County U21 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Liverpool U21 as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (70%), both teams to score (68%) came in.

On the day, Liverpool U21 had 62% of the ball to Derby County U21's 38%, shots finished 13-6.

What was the final score of Liverpool U21 vs Derby County U21?

Liverpool U21 3-1 Derby County U21 in the INGPL2 on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool U21 vs Derby County U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Liverpool U21 47%, draw 24%, Derby County U21 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool U21), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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