Envigado 0-1 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.5
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
25%
+9.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
41%
Away Win
48%
-7.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Envigado EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 52%
+2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.92/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/0.49
+4% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +0%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
254 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
13.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
12.5 Crosses 27.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Envigado
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Once Caldas
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.64 xG 1.02
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
270 Passes 281
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
10 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
10.03.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Envigado Envigado KOL
16.09.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-0 HT 0-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
01.04.2023 Envigado Envigado 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
21.09.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
27.03.2022 Envigado Envigado 1-1 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
06.11.2021 Envigado Envigado 1-2 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Envigado
0-1
AWAY Once Caldas
0.49 xG 1.26
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
230 Passes 284
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
7 Box Touches 18
6 Crosses 18
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Envigado vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas nicked a narrow win over Envigado 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Envigado had 44% of the ball to Once Caldas's 56%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.49 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Once Caldas led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Envigado and 1.00 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Envigado vs Once Caldas?

Envigado 0-1 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Envigado vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Envigado 34%, draw 25%, Once Caldas 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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