Puebla 2-3 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 21 Sep 2024

Puebla
2-3 HT 1-2
Pachuca
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Puebla vs Pachuca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.87
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
43%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.72
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 26% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
22%
+8.1pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.0pp
43%
Away Win
54%
-11.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Pachuca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 58%
-2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
1.14/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.03
+12% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / +10%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 82%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
17.7 Crosses 14.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.7

Puebla vs Pachuca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Pachuca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.00 xG 1.86
49% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
246 Passes 267
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.02.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-4 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
29.10.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
10.01.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 5-1 HT 2-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
08.09.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
20.04.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
02.10.2021 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Puebla 2-3 Pachuca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
2-3
AWAY Pachuca
1.46 xG 1.22
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
259 Passes 473
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca nicked a narrow win over Puebla 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Puebla had 38% of the ball to Pachuca's 62%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 1.46 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Puebla and 2.50 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Pachuca?

Puebla 2-3 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Puebla 30%, draw 26%, Pachuca 43%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Over 2.5
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