Backa Topola 5-2 Novi Pazar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
16%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
61%
-2.2pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.1pp
16%
Away Win
17%
-0.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 21%
-13% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +16%
2.02/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.88
-5% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
26.5 Crosses 12.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Novi Pazar
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.55 xG 1.55
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
368 Passes 238
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.04.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 3-4 HT 2-2 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
29.10.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
04.05.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 4-0 HT 2-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRBK
05.02.2023 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 2-1 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
06.08.2022 Backa Topola Backa Topola 0-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
05.11.2021 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 1-1 HT 1-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
5-2
AWAY Novi Pazar
3.21 xG 1.56
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 0
446 Passes 248
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs Novi Pazar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Backa Topola swept aside Novi Pazar 5-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Backa Topola as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Backa Topola had 61% of the ball to Novi Pazar's 39%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 3.21 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Backa Topola and 1.33 for Novi Pazar.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs Novi Pazar?

Backa Topola 5-2 Novi Pazar in the Serbia - Super League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs Novi Pazar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 59%, draw 25%, Novi Pazar 16%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Backa Topola), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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