MKE Ankaragücü 2-1 Sakaryaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.53
6+ Goals
9%
13.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 29% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.04
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.0
X/1
22%
3.74
X/2
9%
10.65
X/X
8%
5.23
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
11%
8.58
2/X
7%
16.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+8.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.5pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MKE Ankaragücü EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +6%
1.56/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.91
-15% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
26.7 Crosses 14.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MKE Ankaragücü
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Sakaryaspor
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
05.05.2007 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 1-0 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor TSL
18.11.2006 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 0-0 HT 0-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
02.04.2005 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 2-7 HT 1-3 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor TSL
16.10.2004 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 1-0 HT 1-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MKE Ankaragücü
2-1
AWAY Sakaryaspor
2.24 xG 0.69
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
306 Passes 310
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH MKE Ankaragücü vs Sakaryaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MKE Ankaragücü nicked a narrow win over Sakaryaspor 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had MKE Ankaragücü as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, MKE Ankaragücü had 49% of the ball to Sakaryaspor's 51%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.24 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold MKE Ankaragücü's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sakaryaspor led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for MKE Ankaragücü and 2.00 for Sakaryaspor.

What was the final score of MKE Ankaragücü vs Sakaryaspor?

MKE Ankaragücü 2-1 Sakaryaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MKE Ankaragücü vs Sakaryaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a MKE Ankaragücü win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split MKE Ankaragücü 50%, draw 23%, Sakaryaspor 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
T1L More Turkey - 1st Division
21 Sep 2024
16:00 Pendikspor vs Gençlerbirliği Analysis →
19:00 Amed SK vs Boluspor Analysis →