Carrarese 3-4 Avellino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.41
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
4.52
6+ Goals
8%
24.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.25
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
12.7
X/1
8%
4.95
X/2
14%
6.65
X/X
12%
3.67
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
15%
5.15
2/X
9%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.4pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.6pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+6.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carrarese EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Avellino EU Bookmakers 32%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -7%
1.30/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/0.92
+4% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / -20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.0
18.3 Crosses 24.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carrarese
3-4
AWAY Avellino
1.74 xG 1.32
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
403 Passes 281
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
39 Box Touches 7
45 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Carrarese vs Avellino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avellino squeezed past Carrarese 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Avellino made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Carrarese had 58% of the ball to Avellino's 42%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 1.74 to 1.32 — the balance of chances actually favoured Carrarese.

What was the final score of Carrarese vs Avellino?

Carrarese 3-4 Avellino in the Italy - Serie B on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carrarese vs Avellino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carrarese win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Carrarese 39%, draw 27%, Avellino 34%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Carrarese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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