Septemvri Sofia 1-3 Botev Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.76
No
42%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
3%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-1.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
+5.3pp
42%
BTTS No
47%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.29/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/0.55
+22% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +73%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
260 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Septemvri Sofia
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Botev Plovdiv
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
34% Ball Possession 66%
4 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 5
12.04.2025 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 3-0 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
04.11.2024 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 1-0 HT 1-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
POST-MATCH Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botev Plovdiv beat Septemvri Sofia 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Botev Plovdiv as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.50 for Botev Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?

Septemvri Sofia 1-3 Botev Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated an Botev Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Septemvri Sofia 31%, draw 29%, Botev Plovdiv 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botev Plovdiv), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botev Plovdiv) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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