AE Larissa 1-1 AEK Atina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 21 Sep 2025

AE Larissa
1-1 HT 0-0
AEK Atina
📅21/09/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Greece - Super League – 2025/2026

AE Larissa vs AEK Atina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
5.4
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
62%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.37
6+ Goals
8%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 33% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
11.3
1/2
7%
23.65
1/X
7%
19.65
X/1
5%
12.75
X/2
16%
3.76
X/X
7%
5.49
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
40%
1.8
2/X
6%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
15%
+1.8pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.0pp
63%
Away Win
64%
-1.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.1pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AE Larissa v AEK Atina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AE Larissa EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 69%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
0.82/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.73
-25% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
11.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.7
17.6 Crosses 20.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

AE Larissa vs AEK Atina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AE Larissa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY AEK Atina
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.46 xG 1.30
43% Ball Possession 57%
5 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
220 Passes 307
69% Pass Accuracy 73%
8 Box Touches 20
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.02.2021 AE Larissa AE Larissa 2-4 HT 0-2 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
22.11.2020 AEK Atina AEK Atina 4-1 HT 0-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
19.01.2020 AEK Atina AEK Atina 3-0 HT 1-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
05.10.2019 AE Larissa AE Larissa 0-0 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
21.04.2019 AEK Atina AEK Atina 0-1 HT 0-1 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
16.12.2018 AE Larissa AE Larissa 0-0 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN

AE Larissa 1-1 AEK Atina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AE Larissa
1-1
AWAY AEK Atina
1.61 xG 2.20
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
222 Passes 375
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 35
16 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AE Larissa vs AEK Atina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AE Larissa and AEK Atina couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. AEK Atina carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, AE Larissa had 39% of the ball to AEK Atina's 61%, shots finished 14-24, expected goals 1.61 to 2.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for AE Larissa and 1.83 for AEK Atina.

What was the final score of AE Larissa vs AEK Atina?

AE Larissa 1-1 AEK Atina in the Greece - Super League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AE Larissa vs AEK Atina?

Before kick-off our model rated an AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split AE Larissa 17%, draw 21%, AEK Atina 63%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (AEK Atina), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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