Ponte Preta 0-1 Guarani FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 21 Oct 2024

📅21/10/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
33%
2.83
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.41
Over 2.5
38%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.19
No
57%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.01
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
17%
6.57
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.1pp
33%
Draw
32%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-1.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
67%
-5.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
33%
+5.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.2pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 34%
+12% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +5%
1.27/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.15
+6% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
19.9 Crosses 18.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Guarani FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.58 xG 1.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
260 Passes 239
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
15 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
01.07.2024 Guarani FC Guarani FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
03.09.2023 Guarani FC Guarani FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
22.05.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-1 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
20.08.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
08.05.2022 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
20.02.2022 Guarani FC Guarani FC 3-0 HT 2-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
0-1
AWAY Guarani FC
0.37 xG 0.80
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 15
0 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
220 Passes 286
68% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Guarani FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guarani FC edged past Ponte Preta 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 33% / 29% — and on the day Guarani FC made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Ponte Preta had 46% of the ball to Guarani FC's 54%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.37 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guarani FC led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Ponte Preta and 1.00 for Guarani FC.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Guarani FC?

Ponte Preta 0-1 Guarani FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 21/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Guarani FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponte Preta win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 38%, draw 33%, Guarani FC 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ponte Preta) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ponte Preta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
21 Oct 2024
01:30 Sport Recife vs Botafogo SP Analysis →