Helmond Sport 2-1 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 21 Oct 2024

Helmond Sport
2-1 HT 1-0
Roda
📅21/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Helmond Sport vs Roda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
26%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.15
Over 2.5
45%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.56
No
53%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
3.03
6+ Goals
11%
9.39
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.19 — our 28% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.86
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
20%
4.98
X/2
8%
6.95
X/X
10%
5.11
2/1
10%
23.6
2/2
13%
4.58
2/X
5%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
45%
+5.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-3.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.7pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Helmond Sport v Roda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +20%
1.49/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.37
+1% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 78%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
19.8 Crosses 16.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8

Helmond Sport vs Roda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Roda
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.14 xG 1.91
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
314 Passes 388
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-3 HT 2-1 Roda Roda HOL2
11.08.2023 Roda Roda 4-1 HT 2-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
10.02.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
12.11.2022 Roda Roda 0-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
15.04.2022 Roda Roda 5-3 HT 3-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
05.11.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-3 HT 0-2 Roda Roda HOL2

Helmond Sport 2-1 Roda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
2-1
AWAY Roda
0.48 xG 2.12
44% Ball Possession 56%
4 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 4
287 Passes 387
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
9 Box Touches 35
7 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport nicked a narrow win over Roda 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Helmond Sport as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 44% of the ball to Roda's 56%, shots finished 4-19, expected goals 0.48 to 2.12 — on chances, Roda could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Helmond Sport and 2.50 for Roda.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs Roda?

Helmond Sport 2-1 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 21/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 50%, draw 24%, Roda 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Helmond Sport) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
21 Oct 2024
21:00 Ajax II vs ADO Den Haag Analysis →
21:00 Cambuur vs FC Eindhoven Analysis →
21:00 PSV II vs Excelsior Analysis →