PSV II 1-3 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 21 Oct 2024

PSV II
1-3 HT 0-3
Excelsior
📅21/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

PSV II vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.87
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
46%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
2.96
Over 2.5
67%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
66%
1.43
No
34%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.83
2-3 Goals
33%
2.17
4-5 Goals
29%
2.48
6+ Goals
20%
4.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.47
1/2
12%
18.5
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
10%
10.4
X/2
13%
4.34
X/X
9%
7.17
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
21%
1.98
2/X
6%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
22%
+9.5pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.3pp
46%
Away Win
57%
-10.8pp
33%
Under 2.5
30%
+3.1pp
67%
Over 2.5
70%
-3.1pp
66%
BTTS Yes
66%
+0.1pp
34%
BTTS No
34%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSV II v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV II EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 62%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.08/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/1.21
+23% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 81%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.6
12.2 Crosses 27.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.0

PSV II vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Excelsior
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.02 xG 1.72
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
412 Passes 333
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.01.2022 PSV II PSV II 3-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
24.09.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 3-0 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
02.04.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 0-0 HT 0-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
29.08.2020 PSV II PSV II 1-6 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
27.01.2020 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
27.09.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 5-2 HT 4-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2

PSV II 1-3 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV II
1-3
AWAY Excelsior
1.13 xG 1.93
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
429 Passes 235
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 25
25 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PSV II vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior saw off PSV II 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (66%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PSV II had 63% of the ball to Excelsior's 37%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 1.13 to 1.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for PSV II and 2.50 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of PSV II vs Excelsior?

PSV II 1-3 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 21/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV II vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated an Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split PSV II 32%, draw 22%, Excelsior 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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