Pau 1-2 Le Mans FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 21 Nov 2025

📅21/11/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
46%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.74
Over 2.5
52%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.87
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.93
6+ Goals
11%
17.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.45
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
29.0
1/X
9%
13.85
X/1
9%
6.14
X/2
15%
5.22
X/X
7%
4.4
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
23%
3.46
2/X
8%
13.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
34%
-4.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.3pp
46%
Away Win
39%
+7.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
54%
-5.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
46%
+5.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.7pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Mans FC EU Bookmakers 43%
+2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.30/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.59
-10% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
20.2 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Le Mans FC
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
08.02.2019 Pau Pau 0-1 HT 0-1 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
1-2
AWAY Le Mans FC
1.09 xG 1.26
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
476 Passes 292
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 17
33 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pau vs Le Mans FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Mans FC edged past Pau 2-1 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Le Mans FC as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Pau had 61% of the ball to Le Mans FC's 39%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 1.09 to 1.26.

What was the final score of Pau vs Le Mans FC?

Pau 1-2 Le Mans FC in the France - Ligue 2 on 21/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Le Mans FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Le Mans FC win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Pau 29%, draw 25%, Le Mans FC 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Le Mans FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Le Mans FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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