Genoa 1-2 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 21 Dec 2024

Genoa
1-2 HT 0-2
Napoli
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Genoa vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.48
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
44%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.48
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.45
6+ Goals
8%
23.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
17%
8.53
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
5%
17.15
X/1
7%
9.72
X/2
9%
3.78
X/X
11%
4.29
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.29
2/X
11%
16.1
Value flag · 1/1 at 8.53 — our 17% vs market 8.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
19%
+10.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
44%
Away Win
54%
-10.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Genoa v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genoa EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 58%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
0.97/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.97
+3% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +4%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
258 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 82%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
20.5 Crosses 17.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.7

Genoa vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genoa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Napoli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.79 xG 1.79
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 5
258 Passes 544
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
16.09.2023 Genoa Genoa 2-2 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
15.05.2022 Napoli Napoli 3-0 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
29.08.2021 Genoa Genoa 1-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
06.02.2021 Genoa Genoa 2-1 HT 2-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
27.09.2020 Napoli Napoli 6-0 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA

Genoa 1-2 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genoa
1-2
AWAY Napoli
1.05 xG 1.29
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
297 Passes 524
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Genoa vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli squeezed past Genoa 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Genoa had 39% of the ball to Napoli's 61%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.05 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Genoa and 2.50 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Genoa vs Napoli?

Genoa 1-2 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genoa vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Genoa 29%, draw 27%, Napoli 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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