Lecce 1-2 Lazio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 21 Dec 2024

Lecce
1-2 HT 0-1
Lazio
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.65
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
49%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.43
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.28 — our 26% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.66
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
23.4
1/X
9%
16.55
X/1
9%
10.95
X/2
18%
3.87
X/X
13%
5.37
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.04
2/X
7%
15.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.4 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
18%
+3.8pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.3pp
49%
Away Win
58%
-9.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.8pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Lazio EU Bookmakers 62%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.21/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/1.10
-13% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -9%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
282 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 80%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
17.3 Crosses 21.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Lazio
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.73 xG 1.83
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
306 Passes 447
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.01.2024 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
20.08.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
12.05.2023 Lazio Lazio 2-2 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
04.01.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
07.07.2020 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 1-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
10.11.2019 Lazio Lazio 4-2 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
1-2
AWAY Lazio
0.71 xG 1.85
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
273 Passes 458
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Lazio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio squeezed past Lecce 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Lecce had 40% of the ball to Lazio's 60%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.71 to 1.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lecce had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lecce and 1.67 for Lazio.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Lazio?

Lecce 1-2 Lazio in the Italy - Serie A on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Lazio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lecce 22%, draw 29%, Lazio 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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