Lazio 1-0 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 14 Jan 2024

Lazio
1-0 HT 0-0
Lecce
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.37
6+ Goals
9%
22.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.06
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
16.75
X/1
15%
3.56
X/2
8%
10.85
X/X
10%
4.53
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
9%
9.59
2/X
9%
17.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-5.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.71/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.60
+8% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +14%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
420 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 72%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
19.3 Crosses 14.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lecce
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.02 xG 1.85
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
451 Passes 291
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.08.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
12.05.2023 Lazio Lazio 2-2 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
04.01.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
07.07.2020 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 1-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
10.11.2019 Lazio Lazio 4-2 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
22.04.2012 Lazio Lazio 1-1 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
1-0
AWAY Lecce
0.88 xG 1.11
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
428 Passes 376
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 14
6 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio edged past Lecce 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lazio had 53% of the ball to Lecce's 47%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.88 to 1.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lecce led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lazio and 1.83 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Lecce?

Lazio 1-0 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lazio 53%, draw 26%, Lecce 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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