Fiorentina 2-2 Udinese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.04
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 32% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.1
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.7
X/1
18%
3.73
X/2
9%
10.25
X/X
12%
4.8
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
9%
8.51
2/X
5%
16.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.9pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+6.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.7pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Udinese EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -15%
1.82/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.64
-6% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
390 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
23.5 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Udinese
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 1.35
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
415 Passes 274
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Udinese Udinese 0-2 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
14.05.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-0 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
31.08.2022 Udinese Udinese 1-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
27.04.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-4 HT 0-2 Udinese Udinese İTA
26.09.2021 Udinese Udinese 0-1 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
28.02.2021 Udinese Udinese 1-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
2-2
AWAY Udinese
1.34 xG 1.21
70% Ball Possession 30%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
463 Passes 169
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Udinese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina and Udinese shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Fiorentina at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fiorentina had 70% of the ball to Udinese's 30%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.34 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fiorentina and 1.00 for Udinese.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Udinese?

Fiorentina 2-2 Udinese in the Italy - Serie A on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Udinese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 52%, draw 23%, Udinese 25%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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