Milan 3-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 14 Jan 2024

Milan
3-1 HT 1-0
Roma
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.64
Over 2.5
49%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.67
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.45
6+ Goals
9%
23.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.89
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
16%
4.46
X/2
11%
7.12
X/X
9%
3.92
2/1
10%
29.0
2/2
10%
5.63
2/X
7%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
45%
+3.8pp
24%
Draw
29%
-5.2pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
57%
-6.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
43%
+6.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -15%
1.57/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.31
+2% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
310 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
17.3 Crosses 15.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Roma
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.89 xG 1.06
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
403 Passes 300
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
01.09.2023 Roma Roma 1-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
29.04.2023 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
08.01.2023 Milan Milan 2-2 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
06.01.2022 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 2-1 Roma Roma İTA
31.10.2021 Roma Roma 1-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
28.02.2021 Roma Roma 1-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
3-1
AWAY Roma
1.49 xG 1.40
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
418 Passes 435
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
30 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Milan vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan saw off Roma 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Milan had 48% of the ball to Roma's 52%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.49 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Milan and 1.17 for Roma.

What was the final score of Milan vs Roma?

Milan 3-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Milan 49%, draw 24%, Roma 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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