Turan Tovuz 1-1 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.5pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.1pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 33%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.90/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.58
+68% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -29%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
283 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Turan Tovuz
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
03.08.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-0 HT 0-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
28.04.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-0 HT 2-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
24.02.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
10.12.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-2 HT 1-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
30.09.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 0-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
07.05.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 4-0 HT 3-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Turan Tovuz vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Turan Tovuz and Neftçi PFK couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Turan Tovuz at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Turan Tovuz and 1.33 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Turan Tovuz vs Neftçi PFK?

Turan Tovuz 1-1 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Turan Tovuz vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Turan Tovuz win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Turan Tovuz 44%, draw 24%, Neftçi PFK 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Turan Tovuz), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Turan Tovuz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
21 Dec 2024
17:30 Sebail FK vs Zira Analysis →