Aberystwyth Town 3-1 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 21 Dec 2024

Aberystwyth Town
3-1 HT 1-0
Caernarfon Town
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2024/2025

Aberystwyth Town vs Caernarfon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.87
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
43%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.99
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
2.87
6+ Goals
10%
8.72
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.99 — our 28% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
22%
+6.7pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.0pp
43%
Away Win
55%
-11.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aberystwyth Town v Caernarfon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aberystwyth Town EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 59%
-6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.06/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/0.92
+12% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
296 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
4.0 Yellow Cards –

Aberystwyth Town vs Caernarfon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aberystwyth Town
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.10.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-4 HT 0-3 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
17.10.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-0 HT 0-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
09.09.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 2-4 HT 2-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
22.04.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 3-2 HT 1-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
17.03.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
21.01.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Aberystwyth Town vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberystwyth Town got the better of Caernarfon Town 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Caernarfon Town at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aberystwyth Town had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aberystwyth Town and 1.83 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Aberystwyth Town vs Caernarfon Town?

Aberystwyth Town 3-1 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aberystwyth Town vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Aberystwyth Town 29%, draw 28%, Caernarfon Town 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caernarfon Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ BTTS Yes
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