Chaves 2-2 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.56
Over 2.5
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.26
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
4.76
6+ Goals
10%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-5.7pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.5pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+7.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.8pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +25%
1.43/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.06
+14% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +44%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.2 Crosses 16.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Tondela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.70 xG 1.73
58% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
317 Passes 185
75% Pass Accuracy 65%
24 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.05.2019 Tondela Tondela 5-2 HT 4-2 Chaves Chaves POR
13.01.2019 Chaves Chaves 2-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR
18.07.2018 Chaves Chaves 1-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela HAZ
04.03.2018 Tondela Tondela 2-0 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
29.09.2017 Chaves Chaves 1-1 HT 1-1 Tondela Tondela POR
28.01.2017 Tondela Tondela 2-0 HT 2-0 Chaves Chaves POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
2-2
AWAY Tondela
0.80 xG 2.02
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
282 Passes 232
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chaves vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chaves and Tondela couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chaves had 55% of the ball to Tondela's 45%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.80 to 2.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tondela led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chaves and 1.83 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Chaves vs Tondela?

Chaves 2-2 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Chaves 35%, draw 28%, Tondela 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tondela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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