Vizela 2-1 Porto II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.03
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
23%
3.49
6+ Goals
10%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 27% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
13%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-2.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vizela EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto II EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.20/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.35
+21% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.4 Crosses 19.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vizela
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Porto II
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.21 xG 2.65
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 6
278 Passes 298
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
07.02.2021 Vizela Vizela 0-0 HT 0-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
19.09.2020 Porto II Porto II 4-1 HT 3-0 Vizela Vizela POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vizela
2-1
AWAY Porto II
2.25 xG 0.82
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
370 Passes 243
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vizela vs Porto II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vizela squeezed past Porto II 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vizela as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Vizela had 59% of the ball to Porto II's 41%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 2.25 to 0.82 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vizela's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Porto II led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Vizela and 2.00 for Porto II.

What was the final score of Vizela vs Porto II?

Vizela 2-1 Porto II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vizela vs Porto II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vizela win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Vizela 49%, draw 26%, Porto II 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vizela), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vizela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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