Famalicao 1-2 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.89
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.62
Over 2.5
33%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.99
No
63%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.5
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.42
6+ Goals
7%
23.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.5 — our 39% vs market 32.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.62
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
16%
4.15
X/2
10%
8.16
X/X
20%
4.07
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
13%
6.81
2/X
6%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
49%
-10.6pp
33%
Draw
28%
+4.6pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+5.9pp
67%
Under 2.5
58%
+8.6pp
33%
Over 2.5
42%
-8.6pp
37%
BTTS Yes
46%
-9.4pp
63%
BTTS No
54%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +0%
1.31/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.29
-10% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
21.9 Crosses 18.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
2W-3D-0L
AWAY Farense
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.03 xG 1.13
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
384 Passes 211
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
02.09.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
27.02.2021 Famalicao Famalicao 0-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
18.10.2020 Farense Farense 3-3 HT 2-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
25.10.2015 Famalicao Famalicao 2-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
1-2
AWAY Farense
1.37 xG 0.28
74% Ball Possession 26%
11 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
470 Passes 124
86% Pass Accuracy 65%
21 Box Touches 9
25 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense edged past Famalicao 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 33% / 29% — and on the day Farense made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Famalicao had 74% of the ball to Farense's 26%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 1.37 to 0.28 — the balance of chances actually favoured Famalicao.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Famalicao had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Famalicao and 1.00 for Farense.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Farense?

Famalicao 1-2 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 38%, draw 33%, Farense 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Famalicao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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