Mainz 05 0-0 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Dec 2025

📅21/12/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.95
No
45%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.2pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.52/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.51
-15% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +67%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 72%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
22.5 Crosses 17.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
4W-1D-1L
AWAY St. Pauli
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.16 xG 0.97
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
326 Passes 348
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 22
9 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2025 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-0 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
05.10.2024 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-3 HT 0-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
14.05.2011 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
18.12.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-4 HT 1-3 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
10.05.2009 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL2
23.11.2008 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-2 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
0-0
AWAY St. Pauli
1.12 xG 0.32
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 5
311 Passes 255
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 and St. Pauli fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Mainz 05 at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 53% of the ball to St. Pauli's 47%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 1.12 to 0.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.17 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli?

Mainz 05 0-0 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 44%, draw 28%, St. Pauli 28%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Mainz 05), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
21 Dec 2025
19:30 Heidenheim vs Bayern Münih Analysis →