Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mainz 05 v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals
Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-1
St. Pauli
AL1
2-4
HT 1-3
Mainz 05
AL1
2-0
HT 1-0
Mainz 05
AL2
2-2
HT 0-1
St. Pauli
AL2
5-1
HT 3-0
St. Pauli
AL2
Mainz 05 2-0 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics
Mainz 05 beat St. Pauli 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Mainz 05 had 53% of the ball to St. Pauli's 47%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.22 to 0.84.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.33 for St. Pauli.
What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli?
Mainz 05 2-0 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli?
Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 45%, draw 26%, St. Pauli 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.