Tondela 1-2 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Dec 2025

📅21/12/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.82
6+ Goals
8%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.23
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
13%
4.76
X/2
16%
6.64
X/X
14%
3.91
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
9%
5.37
2/X
8%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.2pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
1.44/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.21
-16% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
23.2 Crosses 16.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
1-2
AWAY Casa Pia
1.75 xG 1.20
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
239 Passes 302
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia squeezed past Tondela 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Casa Pia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tondela had 46% of the ball to Casa Pia's 54%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.75 to 1.20 — on chances, Tondela could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Casa Pia?

Tondela 1-2 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tondela 40%, draw 29%, Casa Pia 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tondela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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