AVS 2-2 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Dec 2025

AVS
2-2 HT 2-0
Nacional
📅21/12/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.57
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.85
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.95
6+ Goals
8%
18.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 33% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
4.18
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
4%
13.65
X/1
16%
5.88
X/2
16%
5.42
X/X
15%
4.36
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
18%
3.68
2/X
9%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
35%
-4.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+4.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.8pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.35/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.35
-2% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
14.8 Crosses 19.2
3.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AVS
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Nacional
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.11 xG 2.10
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
303 Passes 254
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 24
30 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
19.01.2025 Nacional Nacional 3-1 HT 3-1 AVS AVS POR
10.08.2024 AVS AVS 1-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR
19.11.2023 AVS AVS 0-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
2-2
AWAY Nacional
1.24 xG 1.08
36% Ball Possession 64%
16 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 2
176 Passes 379
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 24
27 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AVS vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS and Nacional shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AVS had 36% of the ball to Nacional's 64%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 1.24 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for AVS and 1.67 for Nacional.

What was the final score of AVS vs Nacional?

AVS 2-2 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AVS 30%, draw 29%, Nacional 41%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nacional), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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