Nacional 3-1 AVS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 19 Jan 2025

Nacional
3-1 HT 3-1
AVS
📅19/01/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.11
Away
34%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.48
6+ Goals
7%
24.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.75
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.85
X/1
15%
4.42
X/2
10%
7.59
X/X
10%
4.0
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
16%
6.33
2/X
5%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.3pp
23%
Draw
29%
-5.3pp
34%
Away Win
24%
+9.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.7pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY AVS EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.65/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.12
-23% / +92% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
20.8 Crosses 17.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
1W-1D-0L
AWAY AVS
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.82 xG 0.57
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
239 Passes 309
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Crosses 38
4 Yellow Cards 5
10.08.2024 AVS AVS 1-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR
19.11.2023 AVS AVS 0-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
3-1
AWAY AVS
2.39 xG 1.66
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
284 Passes 291
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional vs AVS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional got the better of AVS 3-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional had 49% of the ball to AVS's 51%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.39 to 1.66.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Nacional had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nacional and 0.50 for AVS.

What was the final score of Nacional vs AVS?

Nacional 3-1 AVS in the Portugal - Premier League on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs AVS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Nacional 43%, draw 23%, AVS 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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