Estrela 0-1 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.87
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
50%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
1.97
Over 2.5
63%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.73
No
35%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
3.57
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.18
6+ Goals
14%
11.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.18 — our 28% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.15
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
22.55
1/X
7%
15.05
X/1
7%
9.24
X/2
17%
4.35
X/X
10%
5.21
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.23
2/X
10%
13.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.55 — our 12% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
22%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
50%
Away Win
53%
-3.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
47%
-9.7pp
63%
Over 2.5
53%
+9.7pp
65%
BTTS Yes
54%
+11.2pp
35%
BTTS No
46%
-11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 57%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +17%
1.35/2.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.17
+96% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +36%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 82%
14.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
11.4 Crosses 19.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.09 xG 2.44
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 8
240 Passes 385
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 38
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.08.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
02.03.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
28.09.2023 Estrela Estrela 2-4 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
0-1
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.34 xG 1.32
26% Ball Possession 74%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 8
154 Passes 558
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga edged past Estrela 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estrela had 26% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 74%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.34 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Estrela and 2.67 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Sporting Braga?

Estrela 0-1 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Estrela 23%, draw 27%, Sporting Braga 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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