Al Gharafa 2-0 Al Ahli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 22 Jan 2025

📅22/01/2025 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.59
Over Pick
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.43
No
41%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1
22%
5.44
2-3
37%
1.99
4-5
28%
2.49
6+
13%
5.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.1pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
66%
-6.5pp
41%
BTTS No
34%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Gharafa The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli The Market 30%
+13% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +25%
2.08/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.94
+7% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
17.6 Crosses 14.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Gharafa
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Al Ahli
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.41 xG 1.04
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 Passes 322
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
18.08.2024 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
24.02.2024 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-2 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
01.09.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-4 HT 1-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
03.03.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
31.08.2022 Al Ahli Al Ahli 3-3 HT 2-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
07.01.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
POST-MATCH Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Gharafa got the better of Al Ahli 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Gharafa as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahli led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Al Gharafa and 1.33 for Al Ahli.

What was the final score of Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli?

Al Gharafa 2-0 Al Ahli in the Qatar League on 22/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Al Gharafa 47%, draw 22%, Al Ahli 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Gharafa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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