Leon 2-3 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 22 Feb 2024

Leon
2-3 HT 0-2
Cruz Azul
📅22/02/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Leon vs Cruz Azul Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.1
Over 2.5
46%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.14
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
9%
9.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.14 — our 28% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-3.6pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.8pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-2.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.9pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Cruz Azul — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 43%
+4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.46/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.23
-4% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
18.3 Crosses 18.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Leon vs Cruz Azul Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.84 xG 1.32
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
364 Passes 272
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
09.04.2023 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
09.10.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
16.09.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
08.02.2022 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
04.11.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK

Leon 2-3 Cruz Azul — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
2-3
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.81 xG 2.27
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
243 Passes 476
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 29
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leon vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul edged past Leon 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 31% / 37% — and on the day Cruz Azul made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Leon had 38% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 62%, shots finished 6-16, expected goals 0.81 to 2.27 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cruz Azul's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Leon and 0.83 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Leon vs Cruz Azul?

Leon 2-3 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 22/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Leon 32%, draw 31%, Cruz Azul 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5
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