Toluca 1-0 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 22 Feb 2024

📅22/02/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.59
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.85
2-3 Goals
37%
2.05
4-5 Goals
29%
2.6
6+ Goals
14%
5.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.7pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.8pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.4pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -23%
2.13/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.73
+5% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
340 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 80%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
16.8 Crosses 15.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Santos Laguna
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.19 xG 1.59
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
372 Passes 244
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.11.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-1 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
24.02.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-5 HT 0-2 Toluca Toluca MEK
17.10.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-2 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
14.10.2022 Toluca Toluca 4-3 HT 2-2 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
24.07.2022 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 2-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
16.01.2022 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 1-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
1-0
AWAY Santos Laguna
49% Ball Possession 51%
6 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 4
402 Passes 441
85% Pass Accuracy 89%
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca nicked a narrow win over Santos Laguna 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Toluca had 49% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 51%, shots finished 6-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Toluca and 1.50 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Santos Laguna?

Toluca 1-0 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 22/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Toluca 57%, draw 24%, Santos Laguna 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
22 Feb 2024
06:00 Leon vs Cruz Azul Analysis →
06:00 Club America vs Mazatlan Analysis →