IFK Varnamo 2-3 Degerfors — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Cup, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.26
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
26%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 27% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+1.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.5pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Degerfors EU Bookmakers 33%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -44% / -44%
0.11/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/2.00
-93% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
370 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Varnamo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Degerfors
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.63 xG 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
436 Passes 294
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.08.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-1 HT 0-0 Degerfors Degerfors İSÇ
01.07.2023 Degerfors Degerfors 0-2 HT 0-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
29.10.2022 Degerfors Degerfors 0-0 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
25.04.2022 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 2-0 HT 1-0 Degerfors Degerfors İSÇ
16.09.2018 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-2 HT 1-0 Degerfors Degerfors İSÇ2
02.06.2018 Degerfors Degerfors 4-1 HT 2-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Varnamo
2-3
AWAY Degerfors
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
POST-MATCH IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Degerfors squeezed past IFK Varnamo 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was IFK Varnamo at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, IFK Varnamo had 55% of the ball to Degerfors's 45%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Degerfors led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.17 for Degerfors.

What was the final score of IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors?

IFK Varnamo 2-3 Degerfors in the Sweden - Cup on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors?

Before kick-off our model rated a IFK Varnamo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split IFK Varnamo 45%, draw 23%, Degerfors 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (IFK Varnamo) ✗ BTTS No
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