Kalmar 3-1 Varbergs — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Cup, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.25
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
25%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 27% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kalmar EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Varbergs EU Bookmakers 31%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
3.31/0.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.46/1.39
+105% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -60% / +16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
350 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kalmar
3-1
AWAY Varbergs
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kalmar vs Varbergs
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kalmar got the better of Varbergs 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kalmar as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kalmar had 64% of the ball to Varbergs's 36%, shots finished 11-7.

What was the final score of Kalmar vs Varbergs?

Kalmar 3-1 Varbergs in the Sweden - Cup on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kalmar vs Varbergs?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kalmar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kalmar 43%, draw 24%, Varbergs 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kalmar) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kalmar) ✗ Under 2.5
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