IFK Mariehamn 1-2 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.6
No
55%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
2.95
6+ Goals
10%
9.37
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 31% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
31%
+4.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
40%
Away Win
43%
-3.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.6pp
55%
BTTS No
42%
+13.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 48%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -60% / -60%
1.00/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/5.00
-38% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -83%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
3W-2D-1L
AWAY KTP Kotka
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.35 xG 1.63
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
267 Passes 365
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.10.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-2 HT 0-2 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
01.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
22.04.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
12.02.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 1-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FLK
23.10.2021 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 5-1 HT 4-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
26.09.2021 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 4-2 HT 3-2 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KTP Kotka nicked a narrow win over IFK Mariehamn 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) promised a tight game; KTP Kotka found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, IFK Mariehamn had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.00 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs KTP Kotka?

IFK Mariehamn 1-2 KTP Kotka in the Finland - League Cup on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated an KTP Kotka win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 36%, draw 24%, KTP Kotka 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KTP Kotka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (KTP Kotka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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