Auxerre 3-0 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 22 Feb 2025

Auxerre
3-0 HT 1-0
Marsilya
📅22/02/2025 · 🕒23:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Auxerre vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.65
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
48%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.18
Over Pick
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.69
No
52%
2.05
Total Goals
0-1
28%
4.16
2-3
37%
1.85
4-5
24%
2.89
6+
11%
8.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
8.72
1/2
6%
20.75
1/X
8%
16.65
X/1
11%
11.25
X/2
10%
4.16
X/X
8%
6.07
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
32%
1.92
2/X ✗
9%
14.8
Value flag · 2/X at 14.8 — our 9% vs market 4.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Auxerre v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre The Market 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya The Market 62%
+14% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.44/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.08/0.93
+22% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +43%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
282 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 445 · 84%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.2
17.0 Crosses 21.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Auxerre vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Marsilya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.38 xG 2.31
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
290 Passes 486
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.11.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 1-3 HT 0-3 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
30.04.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 0-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
03.09.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 0-2 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
10.02.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 0-2 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FRK
13.05.2012 Marsilya Marsilya 3-0 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
14.08.2011 Auxerre Auxerre 2-2 HT 0-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Auxerre 3-0 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
3-0
AWAY Marsilya
1.96 xG 0.65
21% Ball Possession 79%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
127 Passes 721
65% Pass Accuracy 90%
18 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Auxerre vs Marsilya
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Auxerre swept aside Marsilya 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

A gentle 48% lean on Marsilya didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time. For what it's worth, the market was even more convinced — 1.60, about 62% — so the upset beat the price as well as us.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 52% for over 2.5, 48% on both teams scoring. At 1.69 (~59%), the BTTS-yes price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

The match data tells the story: Marsilya saw more of the ball, 79% to 21%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.96 to 0.65.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.00 a game for Auxerre against 2.00 for Marsilya.

Auxerre vs Marsilya Result & Final Score

Auxerre 3-0 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Auxerre vs Marsilya Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 27%, draw 25%, Marsilya 48%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Marsilya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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