AC Milan (K) 3-1 Roma (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
52%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
19%
+4.9pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.5pp
52%
Away Win
58%
-6.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.9pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Milan (K) EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma (K) EU Bookmakers 62%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.31/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.07
+5% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / +26%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
228 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.2
17.4 Crosses 23.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Milan (K)
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Roma (K)
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.04 xG 1.69
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 10
292 Passes 360
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 42
14 Crosses 36
3 Yellow Cards 0
25.01.2025 AC Milan (K) AC Milan (K) 3-2 HT 1-2 Roma (K) Roma (K) İTKSA
20.10.2024 Roma (K) Roma (K) 2-1 HT 1-1 AC Milan (K) AC Milan (K) İTKSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Milan (K)
3-1
AWAY Roma (K)
0.64 xG 1.51
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
393 Passes 357
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 20
POST-MATCH AC Milan (K) vs Roma (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Milan (K) got the better of Roma (K) 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Roma (K) at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, AC Milan (K) had 51% of the ball to Roma (K)'s 49%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.64 to 1.51 — the balance of chances actually favoured Roma (K).

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for AC Milan (K) and 2.00 for Roma (K).

What was the final score of AC Milan (K) vs Roma (K)?

AC Milan (K) 3-1 Roma (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Milan (K) vs Roma (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split AC Milan (K) 24%, draw 24%, Roma (K) 52%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Roma (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roma (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTKSA More Italya - Women's Serie A
22 Mar 2025
14:30 Sassuolo (K) vs Lazio (K) Analysis →