Bendel Insurance 1-0 Sunshine Stars — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.49
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.52
Over 2.5
49%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.6
No
53%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Bendel Insurance win — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
63%
-1.9pp
20%
Draw
24%
-4.0pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+5.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
62%
-11.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
38%
+11.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
34%
+12.4pp
53%
BTTS No
66%
-12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bendel Insurance EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunshine Stars EU Bookmakers 16%
+10% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -13%
1.59/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.41/1.86
+0% / +93% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -17%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
359 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 217 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bendel Insurance
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sunshine Stars
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
03.11.2024 Sunshine Stars Sunshine Stars 1-2 HT 1-1 Bendel Insurance Bendel Insurance NIJ
POST-MATCH Bendel Insurance vs Sunshine Stars
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bendel Insurance squeezed past Sunshine Stars 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bendel Insurance as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

What was the final score of Bendel Insurance vs Sunshine Stars?

Bendel Insurance 1-0 Sunshine Stars in the Nigeria NPFL on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bendel Insurance vs Sunshine Stars?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bendel Insurance win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Bendel Insurance 61%, draw 20%, Sunshine Stars 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bendel Insurance), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bendel Insurance) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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