Sunshine Stars 1-2 Bendel Insurance — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.33
Over 2.5
43%
3.14
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
3.14
No
61%
1.31
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1/2
3%
1/X
13%
X/1
5%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
3%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
58%
-0.9pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.5pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+4.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
72%
-15.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
28%
+15.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
28%
+11.6pp
61%
BTTS No
72%
-11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sunshine Stars EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Bendel Insurance EU Bookmakers 16%
+7% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.45/0.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.46/1.68
-12% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
311 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.6 Yellow Cards 3.3
POST-MATCH Sunshine Stars vs Bendel Insurance
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bendel Insurance edged past Sunshine Stars 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Sunshine Stars carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Sunshine Stars vs Bendel Insurance?

Sunshine Stars 1-2 Bendel Insurance in the Nigeria NPFL on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sunshine Stars vs Bendel Insurance?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sunshine Stars win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Sunshine Stars 58%, draw 25%, Bendel Insurance 17%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sunshine Stars) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
NIJ More Nigeria NPFL
3 Nov 2024
18:00 Niger Tornadoes vs Shooting Stars Analysis →
18:00 Bayelsa United vs Enyimba Analysis →
18:00 Ikorodu City vs Rivers United Analysis →
18:00 Akwa United vs Kwara United Analysis →
18:00 Kano Pillars vs Plateau United Analysis →
18:00 Enugu Rangers vs Nasarawa United Analysis →