Lusitania 1-1 Uniao Santarem — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.99
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.52
Over 2.5
45%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.13
No
52%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+6.0pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.6pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-2.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
43%
+5.2pp
52%
BTTS No
57%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao Santarem EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.22/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.71
-6% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
298 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Uniao Santarem
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
19.01.2025 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem 1-0 HT 0-0 Lusitania Lusitania POR3
06.10.2024 Lusitania Lusitania 1-2 HT 1-1 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania
1-1
AWAY Uniao Santarem
53% Ball Possession 47%
5 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lusitania vs Uniao Santarem
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania and Uniao Santarem couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lusitania had 53% of the ball to Uniao Santarem's 47%, shots finished 5-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Uniao Santarem led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lusitania and 1.50 for Uniao Santarem.

What was the final score of Lusitania vs Uniao Santarem?

Lusitania 1-1 Uniao Santarem in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania vs Uniao Santarem?

Before kick-off our model rated an Uniao Santarem win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lusitania 35%, draw 26%, Uniao Santarem 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Uniao Santarem), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao Santarem) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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