Uniao Santarem 1-0 Lusitania — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.78
Over 2.5
36%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.99
No
63%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-5.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
52%
+11.9pp
36%
Over 2.5
48%
-11.9pp
37%
BTTS Yes
46%
-9.5pp
63%
BTTS No
54%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao Santarem EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania EU Bookmakers 21%
-45% / -45% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.00/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/1.83
-39% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -66% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao Santarem
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Lusitania
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 Lusitania Lusitania 1-2 HT 1-1 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao Santarem
1-0
AWAY Lusitania
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Uniao Santarem vs Lusitania
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao Santarem nicked a narrow win over Lusitania 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Uniao Santarem as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Uniao Santarem had 57% of the ball to Lusitania's 43%, shots finished 15-7.

What was the final score of Uniao Santarem vs Lusitania?

Uniao Santarem 1-0 Lusitania in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao Santarem vs Lusitania?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao Santarem win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Uniao Santarem 53%, draw 26%, Lusitania 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao Santarem), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Uniao Santarem) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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