Lusitania 1-2 Uniao Santarem — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.82
No
60%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
20%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.6pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.4pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-4.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
51%
-10.5pp
60%
BTTS No
49%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao Santarem EU Bookmakers 40%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.98/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+55% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +28%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
285 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.5 Yellow Cards 0.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania
1-2
AWAY Uniao Santarem
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Lusitania vs Uniao Santarem
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao Santarem nicked a narrow win over Lusitania 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 32%) promised a tight game; Uniao Santarem found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lusitania had 59% of the ball to Uniao Santarem's 41%, shots finished 9-12.

What was the final score of Lusitania vs Uniao Santarem?

Lusitania 1-2 Uniao Santarem in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania vs Uniao Santarem?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lusitania 37%, draw 31%, Uniao Santarem 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lusitania) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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