Sanjoanense 1-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
46%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
23%
+6.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
46%
Away Win
52%
-5.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.5pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanjoanense EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 56%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.16/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.00
-3% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +15%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
273 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanjoanense
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 HT 1-1 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
29.10.2023 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 1-1 HT 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanjoanense
1-1
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sanjoanense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanjoanense and Lusitania FC Lourosa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lusitania FC Lourosa at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Sanjoanense had 46% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 54%, shots finished 7-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sanjoanense and 1.00 for Lusitania FC Lourosa.

What was the final score of Sanjoanense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Sanjoanense 1-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanjoanense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sanjoanense 29%, draw 25%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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