Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 Sanjoanense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.34
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
17%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
33%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
70%
-7.8pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.7pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.0pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanjoanense EU Bookmakers 14%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
2.39/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/2.01
+30% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Sanjoanense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
29.10.2023 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 1-1 HT 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
1-1
AWAY Sanjoanense
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sanjoanense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa and Sanjoanense couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Lusitania FC Lourosa carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 56% of the ball to Sanjoanense's 44%, shots finished 18-9.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sanjoanense?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 Sanjoanense in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sanjoanense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 62%, draw 21%, Sanjoanense 17%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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