Varzim 1-0 Felgueiras 1932 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.5pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varzim EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Felgueiras 1932 EU Bookmakers 34%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.08/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/0.74
-19% / +87% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +89% / +77%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varzim
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Felgueiras 1932
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2023 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 2-0 HT 1-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
20.01.2023 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 2-0 HT 1-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Varzim
1-0
AWAY Felgueiras 1932
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Varzim vs Felgueiras 1932
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim nicked a narrow win over Felgueiras 1932 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Varzim found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Varzim had 39% of the ball to Felgueiras 1932's 61%, shots finished 11-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Felgueiras 1932 led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Varzim and 2.00 for Felgueiras 1932.

What was the final score of Varzim vs Felgueiras 1932?

Varzim 1-0 Felgueiras 1932 in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varzim vs Felgueiras 1932?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Varzim 38%, draw 25%, Felgueiras 1932 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Varzim), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Varzim) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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