Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arsenal v Manchester City — Team-Based Signals
Arsenal vs Manchester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Manchester City
İNP
1-1
HT 0-0
Arsenal
İCS
Arsenal 0-2 Manchester City — Actual Match Statistics
Manchester City saw off Arsenal 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Manchester City found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Arsenal had 38% of the ball to Manchester City's 62%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.89 to 1.54.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arsenal and 0.83 for Manchester City.
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Arsenal 0-2 Manchester City in the England - League Cup on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 38%, draw 28%, Manchester City 34%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.