Barcelona 1-0 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 22 Mar 2026

📅22/03/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
82%
1.22
Draw
10%
6.26
Away
8%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under
21%
3.46
Over
79%
1.31
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.69
No
45%
2.05
Total Goals
0-1
9%
7.74
2-3
36%
2.28
4-5
37%
2.32
6+
18%
3.97
Value flag · 4-5 at 2.32 — our 37% vs market 35.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
60%
1.34
1/2
1%
34.0
1/X
2%
22.65
X/1
19%
4.04
X/2
3%
23.1
X/X
6%
11.05
2/1
3%
18.35
2/2
4%
17.85
2/X
2%
26.5
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Barcelona The Market 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano The Market 12%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
2.97 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.82
0.84 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 2.25
Strong Attack Strength Weak
Average Defense Strength Average
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
485 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 75%
39 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barcelona
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.46 xG 0.99
64% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
463 Passes 225
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
31.08.2025 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
17.02.2025 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
27.08.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-2 HT 1-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
19.05.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 3-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
25.11.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 1-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
26.04.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 1-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barcelona
1 - 0
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.39 xG 1.56
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 9
416 Passes 224
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Barcelona edged past Rayo Vallecano 1-0.

True to our pre-match read, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 82%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (79%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

The match data tells the story: possession split 61% to 39% in Barcelona's favour, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.39 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Barcelona against 0.83 for Rayo Vallecano.

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano Result & Final Score

Barcelona 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 82%, with the full match-result split Barcelona 82%, draw 10%, Rayo Vallecano 8%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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