Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves Prediction — Model Probabilities
Celta Vigo v Deportivo Alaves — Team-Based Signals
Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Celta Vigo 3-4 Deportivo Alaves — Actual Match Statistics
Deportivo Alaves edged past Celta Vigo 4-3 away from home. The 3-1 half-time score told a different story — this one turned on its head late. With 7 goals, entertainment was never the problem.
We leaned Celta Vigo at 49% — softly — and the game went the other way. Slim leads do that.
Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 46% and both teams to score at 50%.
The match data tells the story: possession split 55% to 45% in Celta Vigo's favour, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.84 to 1.94.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Celta Vigo against 1.00 for Deportivo Alaves.
Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves Result & Final Score
Celta Vigo 3 - 4 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 49%, draw 30%, Deportivo Alaves 21%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.