Deportivo Alaves 1-1 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 27 Jan 2025

📅27/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.62
Over
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.52
2-3
42%
1.74
4-5
17%
4.36
6+
8%
23.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.52 — our 33% vs market 32.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.21
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
12.95
X/1
15%
4.92
X/2
8%
6.67
X/X
17%
3.88
2/1
10%
30.0
2/2
15%
5.16
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.7pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.1pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.1pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo The Market 32%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -19%
1.28/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.33
-11% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
21.7 Crosses 15.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Celta Vigo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.55 xG 1.29
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
264 Passes 412
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.08.2024 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
27.04.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 3-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
28.09.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
07.05.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 4-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
27.11.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-2 HT 1-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
04.04.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-3 HT 0-3 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
1-1
AWAY Celta Vigo
0.95 xG 0.12
50% Ball Possession 50%
3 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
369 Passes 372
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
8 Box Touches 10
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves and Celta Vigo shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Alaves at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 50% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 50%, shots finished 3-5, expected goals 0.95 to 0.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 2.00 for Celta Vigo.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Celta Vigo?

Deportivo Alaves 1-1 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 27/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 41%, draw 28%, Celta Vigo 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportivo Alaves), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →