Los Angeles Galaxy 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 22 Apr 2024

📅22/04/2024 · 🕒03:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.89
Over Pick
59%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
22%
6.69
2-3
37%
2.15
4-5
28%
2.5
6+
13%
5.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.9
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.9
X/1
18%
4.24
X/2
6%
11.2
X/X
14%
7.23
2/1
10%
18.65
2/2
12%
7.07
2/X
6%
15.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.65 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
50%
Home Win
59%
-8.9pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.0pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
31%
+10.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
69%
-10.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.6pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Los Angeles Galaxy The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes The Market 23%
-6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
2.03/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.72
-3% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
428 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 81%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
20.6 Crosses 15.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Los Angeles Galaxy
4W-1D-1L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.61 xG 1.39
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
483 Passes 377
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.03.2024 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 HT 0-2 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
31.08.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-3 HT 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
02.07.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 HT 1-1 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
15.05.2023 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 HT 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
25.09.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-3 HT 0-2 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
14.07.2022 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 2-3 HT 0-3 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Los Angeles Galaxy
4-3
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
2.39 xG 1.80
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
514 Passes 316
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 18
7 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Los Angeles Galaxy nicked a narrow win over San Jose Earthquakes 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Los Angeles Galaxy as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Los Angeles Galaxy had 60% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 40%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 2.39 to 1.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Los Angeles Galaxy had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.83 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Los Angeles Galaxy 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Los Angeles Galaxy 50%, draw 25%, San Jose Earthquakes 25%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Los Angeles Galaxy), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Los Angeles Galaxy) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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