FC Nordsjaelland 7-2 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 22 Apr 2024

📅22/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.36
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 31% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
2.08
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.65
X/1
12%
3.68
X/2
10%
9.99
X/X
8%
5.3
2/1
11%
23.6
2/2
8%
8.15
2/X
7%
17.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
59%
-1.9pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.0pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.8pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 21%
+10% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +0%
2.26/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.32
+35% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +22%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
424 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
35.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
17.4 Crosses 18.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
1W-2D-3L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.35 xG 1.02
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
442 Passes 306
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAK
29.03.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 2-3 HT 1-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAK
26.11.2023 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 0-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
31.07.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-3 HT 1-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
14.05.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
30.04.2023 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 0-1 HT 0-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
7-2
AWAY AGF Aarhus
2.00 xG 1.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
483 Passes 325
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Nordsjaelland swept aside AGF Aarhus 7-2. Half-time: 3-1. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Nordsjaelland as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 7-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Nordsjaelland had 58% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 42%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.00 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 1.17 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus?

FC Nordsjaelland 7-2 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Nordsjaelland win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split FC Nordsjaelland 57%, draw 20%, AGF Aarhus 23%. The final score 7-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →